What are Grey Swans and Gray Rhino’s in the world of risk management? Gray Swans are used to describe events that are possible but not considered likely to happen and that have extremely significant impact. Gray Rhino, this is the Elephant/Gorilla in the room and is an event that is highly probable, has high impact but crucially is a neglected threat.
Looking behind the curtain of CDC’s Ensemble Forest model for forecasting deaths from Covid-19
What is the error in the estimates of the popular Covid-19 models and what can we conclude from that insight?
The US unemployment report for Aug showed the 2nd biggest monthly drop in US unemployment after a 2.2% reduction that occurred in June 2020. However there are a three caveats to the impressive rebound; biggest increase was driven by temporary hiring for 20202 Census and the permanent job losses continued to rise while the number of long term unemployed hardly moved.
The share of mortgages that are 90 days past due is now at a 10-year high and almost a third of the homeowners expect to miss their payments in coming months in some states.
US Jobless claims and monthly unemployment data There is an expectation that the worst of the economic effects of the pandemic are behind us and