This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released their latest forecast which predicts that world GDP will grow by 5.5% in 2021 against a net decline of -3.5% seen in 2020. IMF foresees that first half of 2021 will see softer growth and the growth momentum will increase in the second half. The rebound in 2021 is based on the twin-punch of a ‘vaccine-powered’ recovery coupled with policy support in large economies.
The US unemployment report for Aug showed the 2nd biggest monthly drop in US unemployment after a 2.2% reduction that occurred in June 2020. However there are a three caveats to the impressive rebound; biggest increase was driven by temporary hiring for 20202 Census and the permanent job losses continued to rise while the number of long term unemployed hardly moved.
The share of mortgages that are 90 days past due is now at a 10-year high and almost a third of the homeowners expect to miss their payments in coming months in some states.
Junk Bonds Second quarter 2020 had a massive amount of debt issuance across High Yield (HY) and Investment Grade (IG) ratings and the month of
US Jobless claims and monthly unemployment data There is an expectation that the worst of the economic effects of the pandemic are behind us and